Monday, November 28, 2011

The Pakistan Mess....

http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=690184&vId=2879514&cId=Politics
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/27/nato-reprisals-pakistan-air-strike
http://www.thenews.com.pk/NewsDetail.aspx?ID=27495&title=No-more-business-as-usual-with-US:-PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/26/us-pakistan-nato-idUSTRE7AP03S20111126
http://news.yahoo.com/pakistan-24-troops-dead-nato-helicopter-attack-140517725.html

So much is happening so quickly.  Is this is one of those "catalyst moments" that sometime happen in history?  Pakistan is a nuclear-armed power that doesn't seem to like having its territorial sovereignty questioned (as happened in the Bin Laden raid and the above-mentioned incident).  What will ultimately come of this most recent crisis with Pakistan?  Open conflict?  Safe haven for terrorists?  I'm keeping an eye on news from that part of the world in order to identify any "game-changing" developments that could take place...

FT: The eurozone has just days to avoid collapse

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d9a299a8-1760-11e1-b00e-00144feabdc0.html

QUOTE: I have yet to be convinced that the European Council is capable of reaching such a substantive agreement given its past record. Of course, it will agree on something and sell it as a comprehensive package. It always does. But the halt-life of these fake packages has been getting shorter. After the last summit, the financial markets’ enthusiasm over the ludicrous idea of a leveraged EFSF evaporated after less than 48 hours.  Italy’s disastrous bond auction on Friday tells us time is running out. The eurozone has 10 days at most.

I noticed the poor results from last Friday's Italy bond auction myself, and wondered if it indicated some near-term problems coming to a head....

Report: Explosion rocks Iran city of Isfahan, home to key nuclear facility

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/report-explosion-rocks-iran-city-of-isfahan-home-to-key-nuclear-facility-1.398312

QUOTE: The reported incident occurred about two weeks after Gen. Hasan Tehrani Moghaddam was killed together with 20 other Guard members Nov. 12 at a military site outside Bidganeh village, 40 kilometers southwest of Tehran. 

To the layman it appears that a number of small infiltration operations are taking place in Iran in an attempt to stop their nuclear weapons development.  It will be interesting to see what else develops in regards to Iran over the next few months.  Let's just hope whatever it is doesn't lead into World War III....

Controversal Flu studies demonstrate potential danger

http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/11/scientists-brace-for-media-storm.html

QUOTE: Fouchier's paper is one of two studies that have triggered an intense debate about the limits of scientific freedom and that could portend changes in the way U.S. researchers handle so-called dual-use research: studies that have a potential public health benefit but could also be useful for nefarious purposes like biowarfare or bioterrorism. 

QUOTE #2:  Some scientists say that's reason enough not to do such research. The virus could escape from the lab, or bioterrorists or rogue nations could use the published results to fashion a bioweapon with the potential for mass destruction, they say. "This work should never have been done," says Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey, and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute who has a strong interest in biosecurity issues. 

It is frightening to consider that for all the good things technology has brought us it has also opened up more than one "Pandora's Box".  I am concerned that one way or another an Influenza outbreak is one of the more likely disasters we could face one day, so I strongly recommend you take precautions in advance

Monday, November 21, 2011

Stocks down over 300 due to debt, supercommittee worries

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/11/21/global-debt-woes-slam-wall-street/

QUOTE: The specter of U.S. lawmakers failing to reach an agreement on debt-cutting measures to avert $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts, coupled with persistent jitters over Europe's debt crisis, sparked a powerful global selloff that knocked American market averages more than 2% to the downside.

QUOTE #2: A congressional Super Committee tasked with crafting a bi-partisan solution to tackle the nation's mounting debt burden appeared stuck at a stalemate with the deadline looming just days away. The 12-member panel was mandated to craft the legislation as part a last-minute agreement over the summer to raise the nation's debt ceiling, staving off what could have been a costly default of American debt.  

First off, I am not particularly in favor of any sort of governmental entity not outlined in the Constitution itself so for me the Supercommittee failure is neither unexpected nor too much regretted.  At the same time, the draconian cuts to the military that are set to kick in at a time of rising tension with Iran and Syria (on top of existing troop operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Central Africa and who knows where else) seems like it could lead ultimately to a game-changing collapse of epic proportions. 
Sort of like Rome in its final years...

What does the surge in farmland purchases/selloffs mean?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/21/us-farmland-idUSTRE7AK0EA20111121

QUOTE: Across the Midwest, the dizzying surge in rural land prices is accelerating a fundamental reshaping of the farm sector in the world's biggest food exporter. Instead of digging in to benefit from the boom in grain prices, the next generation is opting to cash out of the small, family-owned farms that harbor centuries of rural wisdom and deep tradition.

QUOTE #2: On the other side are often investors who view U.S. farmland as the latest hot commodity, with prices soaring at a rate not seen since the 1970s, in some cases to record highs.

QUOTE #3: Large-scale farmers and wealthy outside investors - who are weary of Wall Street's roller coaster - are lining up to plow their money into the perceived stability of farmland. Large parcels of good land can be difficult to find in the U.S., and what is out there doesn't tend to come up for sale very often.

Maybe these investors see something down the road that has gotten their attention?  Many in the Survival/Preparedness community have been talking about the "real value" present in farm-able land for, oh decades I suppose.  It's interesting to see that the big money is catching on as well. 
Also, what are those ex-farmers going to do when the value of the money they've been paid with drop precipitously?  Personally, with how things are going lately I'd rather have the land than some digital paper in my bank account although I don't blame them for wanting to get out of the commercial farming business.   Now small-scale farming on the other hand...

BI: Stock Market Is Following A Frighteningly Similar Pattern To 2007/2008

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-stock-market-is-following-a-frighteningly-similar-pattern-to-2008-2011-11?utm_source=twbutton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=moneygame-contributor

QUOTE: If we review our history back to 2007 we will remember that the mainstream media, analysts and economists were telling us at that time that the "subprime mortgage" issues were "contained" and that the economy would experience a "goldilocks"slowdown. 

QUOTE #2: However, as investors, "hope" is not an investment strategy.   As investors we must focus on what the market is telling us.   We can hope for the best, which is certainly much better on the human psychology than the depression onset by delving in the worst....   Therefore, what the market is telling us today is a story that it told us previously in 2007.

In a way I think the best case scenario is a repeat what happened four or so years ago.  There are a number of indicators across the board in housing, what's happening in Europe, etc. that make the potential for what's unfolding now in the US and abroad potentially far worse.  Lately I've tried to put on my historian's hat and ask the question:

"When did they first know they were in  the Great Depression back in the 1930s?"